Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko

<p>Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation</p><p>Earlier this month, a swarm of Russian drones violated Poland’s borders. Some were shot down. A few days later, another Russian drone overflew Romania en route to Ukraine. The Romanian air defence let it get away. Then, on 19 September, three Russian MiG-31 fighters <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/19/estonia-accuses-russia-of-brazen-violation-of-its-airspace">intruded into Estonia’s airspace</a>. Italian F-35s – in the area on a Nato mission – intercepted the Russians and saw them off.</p><p>Although this is hardly the first time Russia has violated Nato’s airspace, the extent and the brazen nature of these latest provocations make them stand out. Incursions will end only when the intruders are shot down. Fortunately, shooting down an occasional Russian fighter jet, never mind drones, is very unlikely to lead to a broader escalation. It may even help cool down tensions by reinforcing the red lines.</p><p>Sergey Radchenko is Wilson E Schmidt distinguished professor at the Henry A Kissinger Center, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/29/russia-putin-usa-cold-war-nato-drones-fighters">Continue reading...</a>