The Guardian view on the nationalist surge: the SNP and Plaid Cymru are making the political weather | Editorial

<p>In both Scotland and Wales, politics is marching to the beat of different drums from the rest of Britain. The UK-wide parties should watch out</p><p>Viewed through the Westminster prism, UK electoral politics seems a five-party contest. The narrative has&nbsp;been well aired in the conference season. The three established parties – Labour, Conservatives and&nbsp;Liberal Democrats – are each battling to peg back&nbsp;the Reform&nbsp;UK surge, with the Greens hovering in&nbsp;the wings. In Scotland and Wales, however, there are different pictures that the Westminster prism does not see. In both countries, the UK parties still fight their corners. Yet the main nationalist parties – the Scottish National party and Plaid Cymru – are reaping the benefit. In Scotland, the SNP has a clear <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election">polling lead</a>, while in Wales, Plaid is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Senedd_election">head-to-head</a> with Reform UK. Caught between the two, the established parties find themselves battling for survival.</p><p>With the nationalists holding their respective annual conferences this weekend, and crucial elections next spring to the devolved parliaments, observers across the UK need to be clear. Much of the political wind in 2026 will blow from the north and the west. Next year, both the SNP and Plaid Cymru could be government parties, a familiar role for the former, but a spectacular turnaround for the latter.</p><p><em><strong>Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tone/letters"> letters</a> section, please <a href="mailto:guardian.letters@th