Australian housing was already cooling before the budget – but how cold it gets depends on two key factors

<p>Most economists believe the chronic undersupply of homes will eventually push prices higher once interest rates ease and the tax changes are priced in</p><ul><li><p>Get our <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/email-newsletters?CMP=cvau_sfl">breaking news email</a>, <a href="https://app.adjust.com/w4u7jx3">free app</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/series/full-story?CMP=cvau_sfl">daily news podcast</a></p></li></ul><p>The government’s property tax changes have become one of the defining political issues of Labor’s second term, drawing fierce criticism from opponents who argue they represent an “assault on aspiration” that will destroy home values.</p><p>In the three weeks after the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/11/changing-tax-rules-for-investors-wont-shrink-housing-supply-or-raise-rents-just-look-at-victoria">negative gearing and capital gains tax changes were revealed</a> in the 12 May budget, housing data has begun to show how they may affect Australia’s property market. Here’s what the data shows, and what could happen next.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jun/06/australia-housing-house-prices-supply-before-budget-after-cgt-capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-changes">Continue reading...</a>